Understanding Energy Yield Estimates (P50, P75, P90, etc.)
Last updated June 12, 2024
Introduction: Energy yield estimates are critical for assessing the financial viability and performance of a PV project. This guide explains the different probabilistic energy yield estimates (P50, P75, P90, etc.) and their significance.
Step-by-Step Instructions:
- Understanding Probabilistic Estimates:
- P50: Represents the median estimate of energy production, meaning there is a 50% chance the actual yield will exceed this value. It is considered the "best estimate."
- P75: Indicates there is a 75% chance the actual energy yield will be equal to or greater than this value.
- P90: Represents a more conservative estimate, with a 90% probability that the actual yield will be at least this amount. It is often used for financial planning and risk assessment.
- P99: The most conservative estimate, with a 99% probability, used for highly risk-averse scenarios.
- Importance of Each Estimate:
- P50 is commonly used for general project planning and initial feasibility studies.
- P75 and P90 are crucial for securing financing and demonstrating project reliability to investors.
- P99 is used in scenarios requiring the highest certainty, often for insurance or high-stakes financial decisions.
- Calculating Energy Yield Estimates:
- Log in to your RatedPower account and open your project.
- Navigate to the "Energy Yield" section.
- Input relevant data, including historical weather data and site-specific parameters.
- The platform will automatically calculate the different probabilistic estimates (P50, P75, P90, P99) based on the input data.
- Analyzing Results:
- Review the calculated estimates to understand the range of potential energy yields.
- Use these estimates to inform financial models, risk assessments, and project viability studies.
- Adjust project parameters if necessary to optimize the yield estimates.
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